[See updated numbers] Short answer: 5% more than last year, but 15% less than 3 years ago and almost 2/3 less than in the City’s early years

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Updated numbers are available here: Updated: How did crime in 2015 compare to the past?

The simplest measure of crime in West Hollywood is the number of reported Part 1 crimes. Part 1 crimes include homicide, rape, aggravated assault, armed robbery, strong-arm robbery, residential burglary, commercial burglary, grand theft, vehicle burglary, petty theft, grand theft auto, and arson. We have annual numbers from 2014 all the way back to 1986, 2 years after the City was incorporated. For 2015, we have the number through November and an assumption that December will be like November.

What the do the numbers tell us? Part 1 crime is up 5% over last year. However, if we look at longer periods, crime has dropped quite a bit. Over 3, 5, and 10-year periods, crime has gone down roughly 15%. Over the 29 years of available data, crime is down 63%. In other words, crime has dropped by almost 2/3 since the City’s early years. These numbers can be seen in the chart below by hovering over or touching each bar.

Notes: This is the percentage change in the annual number of reported Part 1 crimes over various periods ending in 2015. For example, the value for “3 years” is the percentage change from 2012 to 2015. Since 2015 isn’t over yet, we have created a simple forecast using actual numbers for January through November and an assumption that December will be just like November. Sources: California Office of the Attorney General, CJSC Statistics: Crimes and Clearances (for 1986-2014); City of West Hollywood, Public Safety Update for January to June, 2015; City of West Hollywood, monthly crime reports for July through November, 2015.


Part 1 crime in West Hollywood since 1986

The year-by-year crime numbers are shown in the chart below. You can see them by hovering over or touching each dot. The red dot is a forecast for 2015.

Note: The red dot is a forecast for 2015 using actual numbers for January through November and an assumption that December will be just like November. Sources: Same as above.

From the chart, we can see that:

  • Even with an uptick in crime in 2015, there has been less crime in the last 3 years than at any time since 1986, just after the City was incorporated
  • The number of crimes peaked in 1991 and hit bottom in 2014
  • There was a pre-1996 period with more crime, a 1996-1999 period when crime plummeted, a post-1999 period with lower crime, and maybe a 2013-2015 period with even less crime

Violent crime in West Hollywood since 1986

We don’t care equally about all kinds of crime. The charts above include both violent and property crime, but we’re usually more concerned about the former. The chart below shows that violent crime also peaked in 1991. It bottomed out a year earlier, in 2013. It has gone up a bit in 2014 and 2015. Despite that, there has been less violent crime in the last 3 years than in any year since 1986.

Note: The red dot is a forecast for 2015 using actual numbers for January through November and an assumption that December will be just like November. Sources: Same as above.


Violent crime in West Hollywood compared to years past

We’ve done the same percentage-change calculations for violent crime. If our 2015 forecast is correct, violent crime has increased 7% in the past year, versus 4% for property crime. However, violent crime has declined by 15% or more over 3, 5, and 10-year periods. Over the past 29 years, it’s been cut in half.

Sources: Same as above.


http://wehobythenumbers.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/change-in-part-1-crimes.jpghttp://wehobythenumbers.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/change-in-part-1-crimes-300x300.jpgDavid WarrenPerformance (effectiveness)Public safetycrime
Short answer: 5% more than last year, but 15% less than 3 years ago and almost 2/3 less than in the City's early years| Updated numbers are available here: Updated: How did crime in 2015 compare to the past? The simplest measure of crime in West Hollywood is the...